As we reflect on Earth Science Week 2024, our planet tells a compelling story that connects every living being. This week serves as a reminder that Earth science extends beyond rocks and minerals; it encompasses the intricate systems that shape our world and our health. A particularly concerning chapter in this narrative is the impact of our changing climate on the landscape of infectious diseases.
How is Climate Change and Disease Connected?
Geoscientists closely monitor the warming atmosphere and changing precipitation patterns, while epidemiologists track significant shifts in disease spread and emergence. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, primarily from climate-sensitive diseases such as malaria, dengue, and heat-related conditions.
In Singapore, rising temperatures have contributed to a notable increase in vector-borne diseases. The National Environment Agency (NEA) reports that the average temperature in Singapore has risen by about 1°C since 1984, correlating with an increase in the incidence of dengue fever, which has seen outbreaks affecting thousands annually. It is projected to rise to 0.55 degrees Celsius per decade by the end century under the high emissions scenario.
Related Reading: To explore how Earth Science and climate data intersect with carbon projects, check out our blog on VM0047 and carbon baselines
What Are the Cascading Effects of a Changing Climate?
The Earth’s shifting systems create a cascade of effects that influence disease dynamics. Altered precipitation patterns can generate new breeding grounds for pathogens. Singapore's average rainfall has increased by approximately 10% over the past 30 years, leading to more frequent flooding and standing water—ideal conditions for mosquito breeding.
The World Bank's Groundswell report warns that climate change could force 216 million people to migrate within their own countries by 2050, but decisive action could reduce this migration by up to 80%.
Image: An overview of climate-sensitive health risks, WHO
How is Science and Technology Evolving to Address These Challenges?
The realisation that climate change significantly impacts disease spread has indeed sparked a revolution and this paradigm shift has led to a fascinating convergence of previously disparate scientific fields:
Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Earth scientists, climatologists, and epidemiologists are now working hand-in-hand, creating a new field sometimes referred to as "eco-epidemiology" or "climate epidemiology." This collaboration has led to groundbreaking insights and more effective public health strategies.
Advanced Disease Modelling: Modern disease modelling has undergone a dramatic transformation. By integrating climate data, these models can now predict outbreaks with unprecedented accuracy. For instance:
A 2021 study published in The Lancet Planetary Health used climate-based models to predict dengue fever outbreaks in Vietnam with 90% accuracy, up to 6 months in advance.
Satellite Technology and Big Data: The use of satellite data has revolutionised our ability to monitor and predict disease spread:
NASA's SERVIR program employs satellite data to track environmental conditions conducive to locust breeding, particularly in East Africa, including countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia. This system enables timely interventions to control locust populations, mitigating their devastating impacts on agriculture and food safety and security.
AI and Machine Learning: Artificial Intelligence is playing a crucial role in processing the vast amounts of data involved in climate-disease modelling:
Scientists in the U.S. have developed machine learning models, including random forests and neural networks, to predict health impacts from extreme weather events like heatwaves and hurricanes. These models, using clinical, socioeconomic, and environmental data, help identify vulnerabilities and forecast hospitalizations or mortality risks, enabling better public health preparedness during climate crises.
What Can We Do Moving Forward?
At Nika.eco, our advanced algorithms and big data analysis capabilities allow us to dive deep into the complex relationships between climate change and disease patterns. By integrating diverse datasets - from satellite imagery to ground-based climate sensors and epidemiological records - we're able to create highly accurate predictive models. These models provide actionable insights for public health officials, policymakers, and healthcare providers.
As we celebrate Earth Science Week, it’s crucial to recognize the Climate-Disease Connection and its significant implications for public health and environmental sustainability, reminding us that our efforts extend far beyond mere data analysis.
By bridging the gap between climate science and public health, we're contributing to a more resilient and prepared global community. In the face of climate change, our efforts are not just about protecting ecosystems - they're about safeguarding human health and building a more secure future for all.
How is your sector using Earth science to prepare for the impacts of climate change?
Nika.eco specialises in harnessing AI and Earth observation data to inform impactful climate actions. Whether you’re involved in offset projects or disaster management, our solutions drastically reduce delivery times and improve accuracy. Get in touch with our team to learn how our AI-powered models can give your project the edge in today’s climate challenges.
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